By 
John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Since winning the 2019 championship, the Raptors have tried to retain as much strength as possible to remain in the playoff mix. Talent slowly chipped away over time but they kept several of their young players in hopes of making another run again. Their results have been mixed ever since with two seasons in the playoffs and two missing out on them. Each season they’ve tried to put together the best roster possible against all odds and despite any lack of flexibility they had to improve the roster.
The team’s roster strategy was unsuccessful this season. The approach involved scrounging up as many versatile 6-foot-9 players as possible in order to force turnovers and secure victory in the possession game. However, they sorely lacked rim protection until the arrival of Poeltl and still lack shooting in their lineups. They ranked 22nd in the league in three-point attempts per game and 28th in three-point percentage. Even if a new coach comes in employing lineups in favor of more shooting, the personnel still needs to be addressed to support it.
But even though the Raptors chose to keep this group together, the reality is that the Poeltl deal may have only bought them a little more time. All of Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Jakob Poeltl, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. are due for new contracts with significant raises within the next two years. And after that, Scottie Barnes will be due for a new deal. The Raptors will either have to spend deep into the tax to keep this group together or pick who they want to pay and move the others.
Toronto is heading into the 2023 offseason $55 million below the luxury tax with 11 players, including their first-round pick. This projection factors in VanVleet and Trent Jr. declining their respective player options. Most likely, re-signing all three of VanVleet, Poeltl, and Trent Jr. will take the Raptors over the tax threshold, but not by too much. They would still be able to get under later if needed with a trade or by waiving some non-guaranteed players like Thaddeus Young.
Running back this year’s roster leaves them with little flexibility to address other aspects of it. They can add a rotation player with the mid-level exception and find more via trade. Outside their Top 6 players, they have roughly $40 million combined owed to rotation players they could potentially use as outgoing salaries in trades for bench upgrades.
Even if the Raptors do commit to becoming big tax spenders, either with this exact core or a variation of it, the implementation of the second apron could hamper that. Teams above the second apron can only increase payroll by re-signing their own players, signing draft picks, and minimum players. This will require teams to have their depth in order before going above the second apron since it’ll be harder to replenish it later.
This can probably be said about most teams in the league, but maybe all Toronto is missing is a star. Their core proved to be an excellent support cast around Kawhi Leonard when they won the title in 2019, and that may be what it takes to truly bring them back to contention again. Such a move may justify massive luxury tax payments and navigating the limited flexibility above the second apron. Either way, Toronto’s payroll is quickly adding up and they could easily be back in the same position they were in the 2023 trade deadline.
