Super Bowl 2023 OVER/UNDER total touchdowns prediction and odds


Nobody wants to see a bunch of field goals in the Super Bowl or a 13-3 snooze fest like the Patriots over the Rams a few years ago, that is unless you bet the under on total touchdowns in the big game.

Prop bets make the game so much more fun, and it’s already my favorite day of the year. If you take the over and we do get a back-and-forth shootout like the last time the Eagles were in the Super Bowl, then each touchdown will be even more exciting.

There’s just one football game left until a long, dark, sad offseason with no betting on America’s favorite sport. So, like everyone, we’re loading up on Super Bowl prop bets for the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles in Arizona.

Let’s look at the odds for total touchdowns in the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl OVER/UNDER total touchdowns odds

Super Bowl OVER/UNDER total touchdowns prediction and pick

These are two explosive offenses that can score from anywhere on the field, but when we’re looking at an over/under for total touchdowns the most important thing is if they can turn red zone trips into seven points. The Chiefs and Eagles were two of the absolute best teams at doing that this season. Kansas City was No. 2 in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage, reaching the end zone 70.51% of the time. Philly wasn’t far behind at No. 3, 68.57%.

It’s an offensive league, but the defenses play a role too. So, how well did these defenses do at keeping their opponents out of the end zone. Well not very in Kansas City’s case. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense allowed a touchdown on 65.57% of their opponent’s trips inside the 20-yard-line. That was 30th in the NFL and that’s with improvement in the postseason. Entering the playoffs they were 31st.

The Eagles were one of the best defenses this season, so naturally they’re a little better than KC at 53.57%. However, in their last three games, two of which came in the postseason, that ballooned to 66.67%. That’s a bit misleading because they’ve only given up 14 points in the playoffs, but Daniel Jones and Brock Purdy needing Tommy John is not Patrick Mahomes.

I think this one gets high-scoring and I’m happy to take the over even if there’s some juice on over 5.5.

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change

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